Insured losses for Hurricane Helene are now estimated at over $6 billion, but the uninsured losses are far higher. That’s because the vast majority of homes impacted by the storm, especially in hard-hit North Carolina, did not have flood insurance.
New risk-assessment technology is designed to help change that for the future.
Most homeowners in North Carolina do not have flood insurance, because they are not in flood zones designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Government-backed mortgages require flood insurance in those designated areas.
Just 4% of North Carolina homes are in a FEMA flood zone. But climate risk firm First Street, which incorporates the effects of climate change into its property risk scores, shows nearly 12% of homes in the state at flood risk.
First Street just launched a suite of climate risk data for every for-sale property listed on Zillow.
“Climate risks are now a critical factor in home buying decisions,” said Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Zillow, in a release. “We’re providing buyers and sellers with clear, property-specific climate data so they can make informed decisions. As concerns about flooding, extreme temperatures, and wildfires grow, this tool also helps agents inform their clients in discussing climate risk, insurance, and long-term affordability.”
A house along the Broad River in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene on October 1, 2024 in Bat Cave, North Carolina.
Sean Rayford | Getty Images
Each for-sale listing on Zillow now displays First Street risk scores for flood, fire, wind, air and heat. They also show those same risk percentages estimated 15 years and 30 years into the future — the standard lengths for fixed-rate mortgages.
On properties with some risk now, it often shows that risk rise over time, as First Street incorporates the effects of climate change. This is especially true for the flood risk, because climate change is already intensifying the severity of rainfall, even in minor storms.
The data also includes a recommendation as to whether the homeowner should have flood insurance and a link to the First Street site, which will help estimate insurance costs.
“A lot of people think that they are safe from flood if they’re not in a FEMA flood zone, and that’s decidedly not true. Heavy rainfall can affect many, many people across the country, and there’s no indication from the FEMA flood zone designation that that is a risk for you,” said Ed Kearns, chief science officer at First Street. “We’ve created these new flood maps that do bring that into account, that will allow consumers to make that informed choice about whether they need flood insurance.”
More than 80% of buyers now consider climate risk when purchasing a home, according to a survey by Zillow. Respondents ranked flood risk as their highest concern, followed by fire.
A Zillow analysis of August listings found that more homes nationwide had a major climate risk than did those listed for sale five years ago. That was true across all five climate risk categories, the analysis found. For new listings in August, 16.7% are at major wildfire risk and 12.8% show a major risk of flooding, according to Zillow and First Street data.
As more and more consumers consult these climate scores in their purchase decisions, the effect on home values will surely increase. The cost of insurance is already factored into home prices, and as both the cost and necessity of insurance rise, home values in the most affected areas will fall.
“I think that’s going to be the most direct impact of having scores on homes that quantify risk is that there may be some direct impact on real estate values, but a lot of that is going to go through the amount of insurance necessary to cover that home,” Kearns added.
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